The NY Times, along with several other news sources, recently published an article examining, once again, the “50% Myth” of divorce rates in the USA. I commented on this back in June of 2014 (see US Divorce Rate: The 50% Myth). This is of course a very complex issue with multiple levels of interpretation and analysis from an array of viewpoints both statistical and sociological. However, three main trends are evident:
1) Divorce rates surged in the 1970s and 1980s, but since have dropped significantly, first in the 1990s and even more so in the 2000s.
2) Couples are marrying later in life: The median age for marriage in 1890 was 26 for men and 22 for women. By the 1950s, it had dropped to 23 for men and 20 for women. In 2004, it climbed to 27 for men and 26 for women.
3) Fewer couples are getting married per capita: many younger couples are living together prior to or instead of marrying, which reduces the divorce rate for couples in their early twenties.
Of course, this is also a simplified view. Much statistical analysis can be applied to these data. For example, one recurring source of the 50% “rule” is that approximately 2.4 million couples marry in a given year, and 1.2 million divorce. 50%, right? But these divorces are not drawn from the same set as the marriages, or, put another way, half of those married in any given year do not divorce in that same year. More significantly, the number of divorces and marriages are taken as totals from the general population, and not from more definitive samples: the percentage of divorces among second (60-67%) and third (70-73%) marriages is much higher than among marriages that don’t end in divorce, skewing the numbers.
A more accurate approach would be to calculate how many people who ever married subsequently divorced. Calculated in this manner, the US divorce rate has never exceeded 41 percent, and in fact is currently dropping. According to the 2001 survey of the Fertility and Family Branch of the Census Bureau, the rate of divorce for men between 50 and 59 was 41% and for women between 50 and 59 was 39%.
In any case, divorce is a real consideration in marriage, ultimately affecting close to 4 in 10 couples. If you find yourself in the 40 percentile, consider consulting a qualified divorce attorney to examine your situation and the best way forward.